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Global Hydrogen Market Outlook 2030: Current Status, Commercial Technologies, and Future Growth Insights

Global Hydrogen Market

Introduction

Hydrogen is transitioning from a niche industrial input to a cornerstone of the global energy transition. While today’s market remains dominated by fossil-based supply, momentum is building across refining, chemicals, power generation, transportation, and infrastructure. This report summarizes the current market size, key commercialized hydrogen technologies, high-potential growth areas, and strategic insights for investors and industry leaders through 2030.

1. Global Hydrogen Market Status and Growth Outlook

1.1 Current Market Size

  • In 2023, global hydrogen demand reached 97 million tonnes (Mt) and is expected to surpass ~100 Mt in 2024.
  • More than 70% of demand comes from refining and chemical industries (ammonia, methanol).
  • Over 95% of supply is still fossil-based grey hydrogen.

1.2 Growth Toward 2030

  • Market size estimated at $200 billion in 2024, with CAGR of 9–12% through 2030.
  • Clean hydrogen (blue + green) projected to grow from <1% today to 15–20% of total consumption by 2030.
  • Electrolyzer deployment: 1.4 GW in 2023 → 5 GW expected by 2024 → >200 GW announced by 2030 (small fraction at FID stage).

1.3 Terminology: Grey, Blue, and Green Hydrogen

  • Grey Hydrogen: Fossil-based, high CO₂ emissions, lowest cost today.
  • Blue Hydrogen: Fossil-based with CCUS, reduced emissions, transitional role.
  • Green Hydrogen: Electrolysis powered by renewables, near-zero emissions, fastest growth to 2030.
TypeFeedstock / ProcessCarbon FootprintCost Today (approx.)Market Share (2023)Outlook
GreyNatural gas (SMR), coal gasificationVery high$1–1.5/kg~95%Will decline due to carbon regulations
BlueFossil fuels + CCUSMedium (70–90% captured)$2–3/kg<5%Transitional bridge until 2040
GreenWater electrolysis + renewablesNear zero$3–6/kg<1%Fastest growth, expected <$2/kg by 2030

2. Commercial Hydrogen Technologies and Growth Opportunities Toward 2030

SectorCurrent StatusKey Companies / Projects2030 Outlook
Refining & ChemicalsAnchor demand (~70% of global H₂ use); mostly grey hydrogenAir Liquide, Linde, CF Industries, Saudi Aramco NEOM projectMillions of tonnes of blue/green hydrogen annually; large-scale clean ammonia exports
Power GenerationFuel cell plants (Korea, Japan, U.S.); early-stage co-firingBloom Energy, Doosan Fuel Cell, Ceres Power, JERA, Mitsubishi Power, GE VernovaFuel cell capacity ×5; 20–50% co-firing widespread; first 100% H₂ turbines in operation
TransportationCommercial trucks, buses, forklifts; hydrogen trains & demo shipsHyundai, Toyota, Plug Power, Alstom, Maersk, MAN Energy SolutionsLargest FCEV fleets in logistics; 15–20% shipping fuel substitution; early aviation e-fuels
Infrastructure1,160 refueling stations worldwide (2024); pilot hubsIwatani, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Shell, TotalEnergies, EU Hydrogen Backbone, U.S. DOE Hubs5–10× refueling stations; LH₂ & ammonia terminals; 28,000 km EU backbone; global port hubs

2.1 Refining & Chemicals – Clean Substitution

Refining and chemical industries consume over 70% of global hydrogen today, mainly for oil refining, ammonia, and methanol production. This makes them the anchor market for the transition from grey hydrogen to blue and green.

  • Key Drivers:
    • Net-zero targets in Europe, Japan, and South Korea.
    • International shipping’s demand for green ammonia as both fertilizer and fuel.
  • Notable Companies:
    • Air Liquide (France) and Linde (Germany) investing in large-scale electrolysis plants for ammonia production.
    • Saudi Aramco and NEOM Project (Saudi Arabia) targeting multi-gigawatt green ammonia exports by 2030.
    • CF Industries (U.S.) retrofitting existing ammonia plants with carbon capture for blue hydrogen integration.
  • 2030 Outlook:
    Millions of tonnes of clean hydrogen are expected to be absorbed annually through refinery decarbonization and green/blue ammonia production, with Middle East and Australia emerging as key exporters.

2.2 Power Generation – Fuel Cells and Co-firing

Power generation is a frontline sector for hydrogen adoption, combining stationary fuel cells for distributed generation with co-firing in large-scale plants.

  • Fuel Cells:
    • Bloom Energy (U.S.) expanding SOFC deployments for data centers and industrial parks.
    • Doosan Fuel Cell (Korea) delivering MW-scale PEMFC and SOFC systems, integrated into Korea’s hydrogen-powered smart cities.
    • Ceres Power (UK) licensing SOFC technology globally.
  • Co-firing & Turbines:
    • JERA (Japan) successfully demonstrated 20% ammonia co-firing at coal plants.
    • Korea Midland Power & Korea East-West Power piloting 30% hydrogen co-firing in gas turbines.
    • Mitsubishi Power and GE Vernova both developing H₂-ready turbines, capable of 100% hydrogen combustion by ~2030.
  • 2030 Outlook:
    • Distributed fuel cell capacity is expected to grow 5x.
    • Large utilities in Asia will operate 20–50% hydrogen/ammonia co-firing at commercial scale.
    • The first 100% hydrogen turbines are forecast to enter the grid before the decade closes.

2.3 Transportation – Commercial Vehicles & Shipping

Transportation is shifting from demonstration to commercial scale, especially in heavy-duty and maritime segments.

  • Commercial Vehicles:
    • Hyundai Motor (Korea): Xcient fuel cell trucks deployed in Switzerland and Korea.
    • Toyota (Japan): Mirai sedan remains niche, but partnerships with Hino for buses are expanding.
    • Plug Power (U.S.): Supplied over 60,000 hydrogen forklifts to Amazon, Walmart, and Home Depot logistics centers.
  • Rail:
    • Alstom (France) Coradia iLint hydrogen train in full commercial operation in Germany, now expanding to Italy and Austria.
  • Shipping:
    • Maersk (Denmark) leading the transition with 25+ green methanol vessels on order, supported by long-term offtake contracts (500,000 tonnes/year).
    • MAN Energy Solutions developing ammonia-capable engines for cargo ships.
  • Aviation:
    • Airbus ZEROe hydrogen aircraft concept targeting 2035, while near-term growth focuses on e-kerosene mandates (EU: 600 million liters/year by 2030).
  • 2030 Outlook:
    Heavy-duty trucks, buses, and forklifts will represent the largest commercial FCEV fleet. Shipping fuels (green methanol, green ammonia) will be the fastest-growing marine segment with multiple vessels already ordered and supply chains under construction.

2.4 Infrastructure – H₂ Supply Chain

Infrastructure is the critical enabler of hydrogen adoption across sectors.

  • Refueling Stations:
    • 1,160 stations worldwide (2024), led by China (384), Korea (198), Japan (161), Europe (187).
    • AFIR regulation (EU) mandates hydrogen refueling stations every 200 km on the TEN-T network by 2030.
  • Transport & Storage:
    • Iwatani (Japan): investing in liquefied hydrogen supply chain and fueling stations.
    • Kawasaki Heavy Industries: developed the Suiso Frontier, the world’s first LH₂ carrier.
    • Shell & TotalEnergies: expanding hydrogen refueling hubs in Europe.
  • Pipelines & Hubs:
    • Europe’s Hydrogen Backbone plan: 28,000 km of dedicated H₂ pipelines by 2030.
    • U.S. Hydrogen Hubs Program (DOE) funding $7 billion to build regional hydrogen ecosystems.
  • 2030 Outlook:
    Expect 5–10x expansion of refueling stations, commissioning of import/export terminals for liquid hydrogen and ammonia, and integrated hydrogen hubs around industrial clusters and ports (Rotterdam, Houston, Ulsan).

3. Strategic Insights for Industry and Investors

By 2030, the hydrogen market will not only grow in size but also transform in quality. Clean hydrogen is expected to rise from less than 1% today to 15–20% of supply, driven by refinery decarbonization, power generation co-firing, heavy-duty transport, and infrastructure expansion. Early opportunities will emerge in anchor demand sectors such as refining, ammonia, and methanol, while policy-driven markets in Asia, Europe, and North America will accelerate adoption through auctions, subsidies, and mandates.

For companies and investors, success will depend on disciplined capital allocation and a focus on scalable, bankable projects. The strategic priorities are clear: support clean substitution in refining and chemicals, scale co-firing and fuel cells in power generation, build out hydrogen logistics and hubs, and capture growth in heavy transport and marine fuels. These four pillars will shape the next decade of the hydrogen economy and define long-term value creation.

References